Watch out for sustainable design

When we think about sustainable design, and associated business models, it can sometimes seem a little too unrealistic against the tide of consumerism and disposable fashion.  However, we don't need to look too far for inspiration - in the first of two blogs, I'll consider the wristwatch.

Below are couple of watches, with very different pricepoints:

A Rolex Watch

Casio F-91W

Now let's look at some aspects of their design which are sustainable.


Durability

In most cases, watches are built to last.  At the premium end, they are likely to last many generations, and in a lot of cases, with a timeless (excuse the pun!) design.  At the other end of the scale, I can personally testify that the Casio watch above will last 10+ years, and keeps perfect time!

Repairs and servicing

Where a watch is battery-powered, almost all can have the battery replaced at low cost.  We take this for granted of course, but perhaps helps us realise why it's so peculiar that our smartphones and tablets are unlikely to support this (yet).  Another part of the watch which can sometimes wear out is the strap, but of course, in most cases, these can be replaced.

More expensive watches can be serviced, where the internal mechanism is serviced to maintain its precision.  Spare parts are available to support this.

Secondary Markets

As watches are built to last, they retain their value well, so there's a well-established second-hand market.  This might be through jewellers, or eBay.  People very rarely throw out watches.

Emotional connection

People have an emotional connection with their watch.  It may have been given to them by a special friend or relative, it might have been something they've saved up for, and it's likely to be with them during the highs and lows which life throws at them.  This special relationship with a watch may have started as a child in their formative years, as it might have been a 'grown-up present' which was cherished far more than some toys.  I'm not suggesting adults still sport their Mickey Mouse or Transformers watches, but I bet they still have them somewhere (and they probably still work!)


Smart Watches

We are starting to see smart watches appear now - do these pose a challenge to sustainability?

Apple Smart Watch

Superficially, if we group them with smartphones and tablets, we might dismiss them (and of course they need a lot more energy to run than a traditional watch).  But, interestingly, they do retain some qualities which are positive:

• They're expensive!
• The emotional connection can still be made
• They can be upgraded (via software, new straps, etc.)

Time will tell (another pun) if they have the durability of other watches, or as new models come onto the market, whether they are discarded like smartphones.  But if you look at Apple's website, they do give the impression they are designed to last.

*UPDATE: January 2015* BLOCKS are developing a modular smartwatch, with links in the strap allowing 'pick and mix' functionality.  Let's hope it incorporates the sustainability aspects of a traditional watch too.

Blocks modular watch concept

*UPDATE: January 2015* According to 9to5mac.com, Apple's upcoming Smartwatch may have mediocre battery life.  If only it were user-swappable!

Lessons in sustainable design

So, to summarise, when we look at watches as sources of sustainable design inspiration, we should remember to develop products which:

• are inherently durable
• are 'cushioned' from the aggressively cyclical end of fashion
• can be repaired and/or upgraded
• the user is likely to form an emotional connection with (perhaps from childhood?)
• allow the retailer to derive long-term service-based revenues from, e.g. servicing, second-hand sales, helping them move away from a 'sell and forget' consumerism approach

Hydrogen - an answer to pollution in cities?

For automotive transport, hydrogen power is one possible answer to the huge challenge of cities looking to control their pollution levels - producing tailpipe emissions of water.  But, other than a couple of small scale pilots, the odd bus and taxi funded by a couple of technology grants, the technology isn't going anywhere is it?  Well, car manufacturers seem to think differently, with a recent push for production-ready models being introduced.  In parallel to this, researchers have found potential for the 'wonder material' graphene to potentially support hydrogen fuel cell development.

Below, I'll introduce a selection of hydrogen cars, a reference to public transport solutions, the refuelling infrastructure, and where the hydrogen comes from.

The Car's the Star...

Here's a selection of cars which are powered by Hydrogen now (in alphabetical order).  Some were launched in the last five years, but interestingly,  recent motor shows (especially LA) have seen a bit of a proliferation, which is encouraging that R&D spend is being spent on commercialising the technology.

Most cars have carbon-fibre reinforced hydrogen storage tanks onboard (refilled in as little as 3 minutes).  The hydrogen is then mixed with air (oxygen specifically) in a fuel cell (the clever bit with a catalyst), which generates energy to power an electric motor to the drivetrain.  Additional batteries may provide the ability to capture the energy from braking.

Audi A7 h-Tron

Audi A7 h-tron

• 228bhp
• carbon-fibre hydrogen tanks
• four wheel drive
• low-temperature proton exchange membrane (LT PEM) fuel cell stack
• Range up to 311 miles
• Platinum catalyst
• Incorporates a plug-in 8.8kW/h lithium-ion battery to improve range further 
• 0-62mph in 7.8 seconds

More information on Autocar's website here.

BMW Hydrogen 7

BMW Hydrogen 7

BMW have made 100 Hydrogen 7 cars available to 'leading figures in the world' (seems mine has got a little waylaid).

*UPDATE* Dec 18th 2014 - BMW have confirmed they are continuing to invest in Hydrogen (in partnership with Toyota) - see Autocar for more information.

Honda FCV

Honda FCV

• Successor to the FCX Clarity
• Expected 2016 release
• 300+ mile range (Honda hope!)
• 3-5 minute refueling time

More information here.

Hyundai ix35 FCEV

• Plans to manufacture 1000 vehicles by 2015
• 369 mile range, on 3 minutes fuelling

More information here.

 
Mercedes B-Class F-CELL

Mercedes-Benz B-Class F-CELL

• 200 vehicles were delivered to customers in December 2010

More information here.

Toyota Mirai

Toyota Mirai

In 1997, Toyota changed the rules of the game, by introducing the Prius.  Well, it's at it again, so we should probably take this pretty seriously - the Mirai.

To attract motorists on the West Coast of the US, they have developed a pretty impressive microsite - check it out here.

*UPDATE - Jan 2015* Toyota have opened their fuel-cell patents to others

Volkswagen Golf SportWagen HyMotion

VW Hymotion

• Uses a low-temperature proton exchange membrane (LT-PEM) - presumably very similar to their sister group Audi use in the A7 h-tron, above

Some more details from Autocar here.

Volvo

Back in 2010, Volvo announced work to develop the C30 DRIVe Electric to incorporate a hydrogen fuel cell, to help extend the range.

Volvo C30 DRIVe Electric

More information here.


Public Transport is joining in...


Taxi


For London 2012 Olympics, five iconic black cabs were launched, powered by hydrogen.  Here's a (not that exciting!) video showing them:

They were refuelled at Heathrow, and used to take dignitaries into London.  Apparently, they have a range of 250mph, and one has been as fast as 95mph on a test track.


Bus

Transport for London (TfL) runs a fleet of 8 hydrogen buses on its tourist-friendly RV1 bus route:

RV1 Hydrogen Bus, London

More information can be found here from the 2010 press release.  This of course misses the subsequent news that the buses were temporarily withdrawn from the route during the London 2012 Olympics, as part of a hazardous materials ban.


Refuelling Infrastructure

Of course, having hydrogen vehicles is only part of the puzzle, you also need viable options to refuel them (much like the current 'range anxiety' issues with EVs).  For the UK though, there is some good progress:

• The Government recently announced an additional £11m of funding to support hydrogen filling stations (example below) and a concentrated public sector fleet of 40 vehicles.

• Sainsbury's are collaborating with Air Products to install the first supermarket forecourt dispenser

*UPDATE - January 2015* In Japan, Tokyo's making investments in hydrogen infrastructure ahead of the 2020 Olympics, in helping reduce its reliance on Nuclear.  As reported by Bloomberg, they are hoping to build 35 refueling stations, and have 6000 hydrogen cars on the road by then.

But where does the Hydrogen come from?

Having tailpipe emissions of just water is pretty attractive, especially in cities like London, which are under incredible pressure to reduce their emissions.  However, it's important that any environmental impact isn't just externalised somewhere else, namely at the point of hydrogen manufacture.

Hydrogen is of course everywhere, in fact it's earth's most abundant element.  The snag is that it tends to hang-around pretty closely with its other element friends, and it takes a fair bit of energy to separate them.  So, the trick is to be able to isolate it, and store it safely.  There are a few options (taken from Toyota's helpful site):

• Gasification - high temperature organic waste
• Steam reforming - high temperature reaction between methane (natural gas). and steam
• Electrolysis - passing current through water, to separate hydrogen and oxygen

Some of these sources aren't free of emissions, so there needs to be an ongoing push to source the energy needed from low-carbon sources, else we won't have delivered a net environmental benefit.  And on that note, it's worth celebrating a UK first, courtesy of Honda, who have recently launched a solar-powered hydrogen production and refuelling facility on their Swindon site - what an incredible achievement!

Honda's hydrogen production and refuelling facility

Will climate change help clothing retailers hit a circular target?

One of the main challenges to the sustainability of our environment is consumerism. Fuelled by cheap credit, a key sector which relies and exploits this phenomenon is clothing retail.  This blog will argue that although some clothing retailers are proactively tackling some key sustainability issues, there is an elephant in the room - retailers want you to buy more of their clothes.  This, I'm afraid, is a nut which needs to be cracked before retailers can proudly talk about taking a leadership position on sustainability. And if they get this right, mindsets of consumers can change, and we might see a change in behaviours impacting other sectors too.  Re-writing a business model isn't easy (ok, as an incumbent, it's almost impossible), but in this case, climate change may be a useful nudge.

Sustainability for clothing retailers today

In a very simple model, we can look at clothing retailers as sitting between their upstream supply chain (making the clothes), and the consumers downstream (who buy lots of clothes):

A simplified 'value chain' for clothing retail

I've applied a simple 'RAG status' against each area to grossly generalise where the sector is progressing well, and where there's much more to do:

GREEN - Clothing Retail (own operations)

Leading clothing retailers have realised that resource efficiency is a good thing - for meeting regulation, reducing operational costs, and enhancing reputation.  This is fine, but is expected behaviour now, so meeting targets like the following are expected (by me!):

• Ongoing reductions in (scope 1 and 2) carbon footprint - e.g. emissions associated with running stores and fleets of owned transport; new (ok, not that new) technologies like LED lighting and store refit programmes should deliver ongoing savings - and there's a business case in cost savings there for the taking
• Zero waste to landfill.  Helped with proactive reuse and recycling, and as a last resort, waste-to-energy conversion
• Low-carbon stores - either as new build, or significant retrofit, but acknowledged to be challenging for some older estates
• On-site/near-site energy generation - PV, etc.
• Minimising net water use (use of water harvesting from roofs, etc.)

 AMBER - Supply Chain / manufacturing

The conditions of supply chains is frequently under the spotlight, and rightly so. NGOs have been incredibly effective in highlighting problems in developing countries to western consumers, and things are improving - take the 'Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh' following the Rana Plaza disaster as a good example.  I don't think any retailer is complacent about this area, and acknowledges robust auditing through multiple layers of organisations is not watertight.  Typical targets include:

• workers' rights (hours, conditions, pay, etc.)
• pollution control in factories
• increased use of fair-trade /sustainably-sourced materials
• zero tolerance on child labour

If you're interested in this area, check out Honestby, who have taken supply chain transparency to a refreshing new level!

RED - Consumer

Some retailers are engaging with their consumers around sustainability, and helping shift behaviours, e.g. providing collection points for unwanted clothes.  But, for the vast majority of retailers, they're pretty keen on you buying as much as you can, each time you shop. The reality is that the business-as-usual metrics (or KPIs) retailers run their stores businesses on include:

• Sales per square foot of selling space
• Footfall (number of people going into stores)
• Average Basket size (number of items / value of items in typical transaction)

So, simply put, they want to maximise the value of every square foot of retailer space, by getting as many people through the door, and nudging them into buying as much as possible.  Doesn't sound too environmentally sustainable does it?  

Hang on a minute though, a clothing retailer might argue that they do take sustainability seriously (see green and amber areas above).  "...And sure, we like to sell lots of clothes, but then customers love buying and wearing our clothes, shareholders are happy, bonuses are paid out, we're proud of our Christmas ads, and we're better than the competition." Happy days... or is it?

Where does climate change fit into this?

Traditionally, clothing retail (in the UK) has relied on a couple of concepts around our seasons:

• Predictable seasonality
• That each repeat season, fashion trends will mean consumers want to replace items with the latest version (even if they don't necessarily need to)

Whether you believe there's a link between climate change and extreme weather, or whether climate change is caused by human action, there's no doubt that weather patterns are becoming more volatile, triggering various impacts for clothing retail:

• It is much more difficult to plan merchandising, e.g. should the Autumn/Winter range go into stores in September, October, November December, etc.?  And when should discounting start, when stock can't be shifted, e.g. what if there's a 'cold snap' in April after a mild March?
• Virgin cotton price volatility, as extreme weather impacts crop yields
• Global supply chains exposed when extreme weather impacts key logistics routes
• National deliveries to stores (or to homes) exposed to UK's weather, e.g. flooding
• Consumer appetite to visit the traditional High Street in poor weather (offset partly by online, of course)

This may or may not be a boardroom issue (I expect, as it's a gradual shift over many years, it may not be yet, but I expect we'll see more and more press releases like this one), but forward-thinking retailers might consider how the circular economy can help them adapt. Could we see a world where clothing retailers combine climate change mitigation and adaptation sustainability strategies?

The Circular Economy for clothing retailers

Lots has been written about the Circular Economy (I even had a go back in 2012 before the name was introduced), and I'm a huge fan of the concept.  For clothing it's so much more than recycling bins in stores though (albeit this helps highlight the huge problem of clothing going to landfill and nudge customer behaviour in the right direction).  It ideally needs to tackle business models and service design from the ground-up.  For clothing retailers, this is a real challenge of course, as it means moving away from selling as much new clothing as possible, to a model where revenue streams come from other routes.  But there are some notable examples which are demonstrating some real innovation:

• Mud Jeans have a groundbreaking business model, where their jeans are rented not bought
• Patagonia's eBay partnership  encourages buying their previously used garments
• Rentez-vous and their peer-to-peer fashion lending concept

There is also an increasing number of upcycling initiatives, which help provide a second life for what might otherwise be a waste stream going to landfill:

• Timberland are partnering with a tyre manufacturer
• Nike upcycling plastic bottles into football jerseys (video)

Note, there's a bit of a blur between whether these are clothing manufacturers who retail, or retailers who manufacture.  But it's quite insightful when thinking of corporate strategies that having control of manufacturing operations is a key enabler.

The way forward for clothing retail

So, we've identified that clothing retailers are doing some great work reducing the environmental impact of their own operations (and reducing costs), and that most are tackling the social and environmental challenges in their supply chains.  But we've also acknowledged that whilst the existing 'sell lots of new clothes' business model still pervades, a societal shift away from consumerism won't work.

We've also seen that climate change may introduce the need for adaptation as well as mitigation, so this introduces another nudge to think differently.

So, rather than the traditional retail metrics, and the set of sustainability metrics to minimise impacts on own operations, I'd like to see retailers challenge themselves with a new set of targets.  Here are some ideas to stimulate some thinking:

• 25% of clothing sales are for 'previously loved' clothes (with a % of proceeds to charity)
• 5% of floorspace is for clothing repairs/alterations/cleaning
• 50% of stock items (SKUs) are sold for at least three seasons/years
• 30% of stock items (SKUs) are manufactured from reclaimed yarn (or maybe a larger proportion of stock items are manufactured with a high proportion of reclaimed yarn)
• All new clothes are durably designed, so that they can come with a 12 month no quibble guarantee (could a stitched-in 'manufactured on mm/yyyy' label become a badge of honour?)
• You can rent infrequently used items, maybe a suit and tie, or a handbag, perhaps even hosting peer-to-peer sharing like rentez-vous
• Stores become a hub for the community - floorspace is offered for library, adult education, local clubs...

The business model needs to explore:

• Revenue diversification and driving brand loyalty through services (not new products)
• Increased vertical integration upstream with clothing manufacturing

Within the next two years, it would be great to see some/all of these concepts at least trialled in existing stores - there's a reputational prize for such an investment, even if the financial rewards aren't immediate.

A sign outside a store in Boston, US

Food packaging - time to reuse more?

Where I live, in England, our council provides a pretty comprehensive recycling service - food waste is taken weekly, and mixed recycling (glass, paper, plastics, etc.) every other week.  When I look at what I do have to put in the 'evil black bin', destined for landfill, the vast majority of this seems to be food packaging.  It's not a lot in volume terms at all, which is testament to my well-drilled household and the council facilities... but it's not zero.  Are there additional steps which either myself, my food retailer, or the food/packaging manufacturer/producer can do, to help me get closer to improve my 'food packaging footprint'?

Waste Hierarchy

The 'waste hierarchy' is not perfect (more on that in another post soon!), but serves a useful purpose for this blog:

Waste Hierarchy

It suggests that ideally, we'd prevent the use of packaging where possible, then minimise its use, then reuse, recycle, and eventually, if it can't be burned for energy, send to landfill.  

WRAP continue to provide the industry with a series of voluntary agreements which support a range of initiatives aligned to the waste hierarchy's philosophy, via the Courtauld Commitment.

The importance of packaging

Food packaging serves a number of purposes:

• protecting the food from physical damage (e.g. an egg box) 
• preventing contamination (e.g. vacuum-sealed meat packaging)
• storage (e.g. a yoghurt pot)
• convenience (e.g. bag of rice)

Without such packaging, we would see a significant increase in food waste throughout the supply chain, probably a larger sustainability problem than dealing with the end-packaging.  The classic example of this is the shrink-wrapped cucumber.

There are already responsibilities placed on the food packaging producers to minimise packaging where possible, and progress is being made.  Personally, I'm still not convinced about Easter Eggs, with Sainsbury's trialling dedicated recycling facilities earlier this year.

Recycling packaging

I mentioned earlier that my council will happily take mixed recycling (it saves them - and therefore indirectly my council tax bill - on paying landfill tax), which means a lot of food packaging is recyclable:

• Plastic milk bottles
• Cans (baked beans, etc.)
• Card (egg boxes, frozen fish boxes, cereal, etc.)
• Tetra-pak cartons, e.g. fruit juices [not all councils support this yet]

Retailers are helping us, the consumer, understand more about what is recyclable, with much improved labeling, e.g. here's the range of labels which M&S use, based on WRAP's work.


Reusing packaging - the untapped opportunity?

Between prevention/minimisation of food packaging, and recycling is reuse... and this is where I wonder if more could be done?  So, before it enters the recycling loop, the packaging is reused as many times as practically, and cost effectively, as possible.

The British consumer is starting to get used to using less single-use carrier bags, with various initiatives taking-place, either:

• from the Regional Governments:
• in Wales, the 5p charge has seen usage reduce by 96%
• a 5p charge in Northern Ireland
• the recent announcement to introduce a 5p charge in Scotland
• The Queen's Speech on June 4th set to outline legislation to introduce a compulsory 5p charge for single-use carrier bags in England, from October 2015 - UPDATE 05/10 - now effective.
• from retailers:
• e.g. M&S charges 5p
• Sainsbury's offers Nectar points for re-use, and Tesco offer Green Clubcard points
• Selling 'bags for life', (some with free replacements)

This means more and more households are prepared to go shopping, taking a few bags with them...  But could we see a future, where consumers see some of their food packaging as being equally reusable?  There are three models to consider:

a.) Packaging for immediate refill at shop

In this model, rather than taking just their empty canvas bags to the shops, the consumer also takes some selective packaging, which they're happy to use as a receptacle for refilling at an in-store dispenser.  This could be the same packaging for the product, or another container.  It's a very similar concept to a trial which Asda ran for their fabric conditioner, in collaboration with WRAP.

b.) Packaging for return (then later reuse) at shop

This is where packaging is taken to a shop for re-use at a later date, by another consumer.  The packaging would need to be sterilised and checked, either on-site, or at a central location, much like there used to be a monetary rebate for bringing back glass bottles.

c.) Packaging for return as part of home delivery

Much like option 'b' above, as one's shopping is delivered at home, the van-driver is able to collect packaging, for cleaning and reuse, not for recycling.

Heinz Fridge Pack

Reusable Cereal Container (Source: Lakeland)

Egg Box (Sainsbury's)

Of course there are lots of practical considerations, e.g. contamination liabilities, spillage at 'disposal stations', needing to print updated 'use by' dates, and ensuring it's cost effective compared to simple recycling.  It's a classic piece of Service Design, but I expect the challenges are easier to overcome than the perceived barriers of self checkouts, which are now commonplace.  With the right incentives in-place (discounts, rebates, Nectar points, etc.), might this work?  

Finally, where a supervisor is required at a food dispensing station, would this provide an excuse for a conversation - great for some parts of society who are lonely and crave the social interaction, plus a good excuse to reinforce the brand?

Water, Water, Everywhere...?

After the torrential rain and subsequent floods which hit the UK a few months ago, it can be hard to dismiss that over the long-term, the South of the UK is one of the most water-stressed parts of Europe.  That basically means that we're using too much water (in our homes, business and in agriculture), than our normal freshwater supplies will allow.

Water is an incredibly cheap resource (relative to the benefits we derive from it), so it can be easy to dismiss its importance.  However, with climate change likely to cause an increase in extreme weather events, droughts may be become more common.  If we act now and start to change our behaviours, collectively, we can minimise the inconvenience of any problems in the future.

Use of hot water

Although water is relatively cheap, energy certainly isn't.  Surprisingly, many people haven't understood the link between their use of hot water, and their energy bills.  In fact, it is estimated that 17% of your energy bill may go towards heating water.  So for an average dual-fuel energy bill of £1264, £215 is for heating water.  So, having slightly shorter showers (and minimising baths), can make a real difference to your energy bills.

Water (and energy!) saving shower head

Free water-savings gadgets

Your local water company wants to help you save water (in fact they've had a duty to promote the efficient use of water for all their customers since February 1996), so most offer free water-saving gadgets.  Just click the relevant link below for your water company and select the freebies which are most relevant to your needs.

Sustainable Mobility

I always have mixed views when I see the latest statistics from the UK's Society of Motor Manufactures and Traders (SMMT), as I enjoy cars, but also care passionately about sustainability.  Is selling lots of new cars a good thing for the planet? And it's got me thinking about where the industry might be heading for the 'green motorist'.  What might motoring be like in the coming 10-20 years?

March 2014

By the end of Q1 2014, year-to-date registrations were up 13.7% to 688,122 units.  Superficially, this might look bad for sustainability, as more new cars are on the road, with purchases perhaps fueled by extra cash in the pockets from PPI payouts.  Of course, a large proportion of these cars are either bought as fleets, or using one of the range of car finance options available by dealers (nudging towards a different ownership model?).

The great news within these statistics is the ongoing path towards more efficient cars.  In fact, March 2014 was the biggest-ever month for alternatively-fueled vehicles as volumes reach 8,713 units, a growth of 63.8% on 2013.

CO2 emissions for new cars are 26% lower than a decade ago...

...and 67.2% of the market was below 130g/km, so paid no VED in the first year, compared with only 6.5% of registrations in March 2004.

So some really positive news about the improvement made over the last decade and being seen on the forecourts of Britain.  

So that's today.  What about tomorrow? Below I've outlined my thoughts about what might happen in the medium-term...

2015-2020

Tailpipe emission reductions will continue at-pace, driven by the EU regulation, and with the really encouraging sign that buyers are more and more conscious of the running costs of their vehicles (and therefore these criteria will be marketed more, creating a virtuous circle).  Manufacturers will continue to roll-out technologies across their fleet to drive down emissions, for example:

• Alternative and hybrid powertrains
• Turbocharging with smaller engines
• Variable valve technology and 'cylinder on demand'
• Auto start/stop
• Regenerative braking
• Improved aerodynamics
• Lightweighting of materials

Here's Audi's rundown of the technologies they are including within their range now (click to see larger):

Audi's sustainability innovations

Private car ownership will continue to dwindle, with the growth of car clubs and car sharing continuing, in both cities, and on high-density commuting routes.

The near ubiquity of sat-nav should reduce congestion.

And of course manufacturers will continue to introduce new innovations, which will find their way into high-end models.  A great example of this is Audi's integration with city-wide traffic lights management systems, helping the driver time their approach to traffic lights for when they are green:

Audi: traffic light integration

In the world of regulation, we'll be seeing more city-level initiatives to suppress emissions.  Paris has recently had to introduce alternate day travelling, and with London having recently faced very high pollution levels, it's only a matter of time when more is required there, albeit taxis being zero-emission capable from 2018 will help.

With the volatility and security of supply of many materials coming under the spotlight, there will be an even greater focus on the use of renewable materials, and ensuring that vehicles can be easily dismantled, with parts clearly identified at the end of their life for recycling (in fact, by 2015, in the EU, 85% of a car must be recyclable, and a further 10% suitable for energy recovery).

Finally, behind the scenes to the average driver, manufacturers will face greater pressure to be more environmentally aware in their facilities.  Carbon, waste and water usage will all be reduced.

2020s


From 2020, there may be a decade of opportunity where people will be able to enjoy independent motoring, without being as worried about the environmental impact.  Powertrain developments will have meant that it's much cheaper and cleaner to run a car (time will tell which combination of ultra-efficient diesel/petrol, fuel cell, electric, etc. will be optimal).

Private ownership of cars will have dwindled even further, with 'mobility solutions' meaning individuals can 'subscribe' to a service allowing them to choose suitable vehicles for different purposes, like Peugeot already run with their Mu Service and BMW is developing.

BMW i

2030+

From 2030 onwards, the age of the independent motorist will have almost disappeared.  Cars will be part of a mesh of inter-connected modules, driven automatically, without driver input required.  Sounds like science fiction, e.g. Minority Report, which showcased the Lexus 2054 concept?  Well, look at what Volvo have already been trialing, and inevitably, Google have been working on this too. [UPDATE MAY 2014: In fact, Google have announced they will develop their own driverless cars - perhaps 2030+ is too pessimistic!]

Volvo: Autonomous driving in traffic queues

A prototype of a Google driverless car

Maybe, each 'train' of vehicles will optimise the use of the available powertrains within each module, to drastically reduce overall consumption, perhaps with wireless charging from under the road?  And of course, road accidents will be reduced, making journeys quicker and safer.

Wireless charging a Rolls Royce

So, a fascinating and optimistic transition as we move from independent motoring to sustainable mobility in the coming years...