I always have mixed views when I see the latest statistics from the UK's Society of Motor Manufactures and Traders (SMMT), as I enjoy cars, but also care passionately about sustainability. Is selling lots of new cars a good thing for the planet? And it's got me thinking about where the industry might be heading for the 'green motorist'. What might motoring be like in the coming 10-20 years?
March 2014
By the end of Q1 2014, year-to-date registrations were up 13.7% to 688,122 units. Superficially, this might look bad for sustainability, as more new cars are on the road, with purchases perhaps fueled by extra cash in the pockets from PPI payouts. Of course, a large proportion of these cars are either bought as fleets, or using one of the range of car finance options available by dealers (nudging towards a different ownership model?).
The great news within these statistics is the ongoing path towards more efficient cars. In fact, March 2014 was the biggest-ever month for alternatively-fueled vehicles as volumes reach 8,713 units, a growth of 63.8% on 2013.
CO2 emissions for new cars are 26% lower than a decade ago...
...and 67.2% of the market was below 130g/km, so paid no VED in the first year, compared with only 6.5% of registrations in March 2004.
So some really positive news about the improvement made over the last decade and being seen on the forecourts of Britain.
So that's today. What about tomorrow? Below I've outlined my thoughts about what might happen in the medium-term...
2015-2020
Tailpipe emission reductions will continue at-pace, driven by the EU regulation, and with the really encouraging sign that buyers are more and more conscious of the running costs of their vehicles (and therefore these criteria will be marketed more, creating a virtuous circle). Manufacturers will continue to roll-out technologies across their fleet to drive down emissions, for example:
The near ubiquity of sat-nav should reduce congestion.
And of course manufacturers will continue to introduce new innovations, which will find their way into high-end models. A great example of this is Audi's integration with city-wide traffic lights management systems, helping the driver time their approach to traffic lights for when they are green:
In the world of regulation, we'll be seeing more city-level initiatives to suppress emissions. Paris has recently had to introduce alternate day travelling, and with London having recently faced very high pollution levels, it's only a matter of time when more is required there, albeit taxis being zero-emission capable from 2018 will help.
With the volatility and security of supply of many materials coming under the spotlight, there will be an even greater focus on the use of renewable materials, and ensuring that vehicles can be easily dismantled, with parts clearly identified at the end of their life for recycling (in fact, by 2015, in the EU, 85% of a car must be recyclable, and a further 10% suitable for energy recovery).
Finally, behind the scenes to the average driver, manufacturers will face greater pressure to be more environmentally aware in their facilities. Carbon, waste and water usage will all be reduced.
2020s
From 2020, there may be a decade of opportunity where people will be able to enjoy independent motoring, without being as worried about the environmental impact. Powertrain developments will have meant that it's much cheaper and cleaner to run a car (time will tell which combination of ultra-efficient diesel/petrol, fuel cell, electric, etc. will be optimal).
Private ownership of cars will have dwindled even further, with 'mobility solutions' meaning individuals can 'subscribe' to a service allowing them to choose suitable vehicles for different purposes, like Peugeot already run with their Mu Service and BMW is developing.
2030+
From 2030 onwards, the age of the independent motorist will have almost disappeared. Cars will be part of a mesh of inter-connected modules, driven automatically, without driver input required. Sounds like science fiction, e.g. Minority Report, which showcased the Lexus 2054 concept? Well, look at what Volvo have already been trialing, and inevitably, Google have been working on this too. [UPDATE MAY 2014: In fact, Google have announced they will develop their own driverless cars - perhaps 2030+ is too pessimistic!]
Maybe, each 'train' of vehicles will optimise the use of the available powertrains within each module, to drastically reduce overall consumption, perhaps with wireless charging from under the road? And of course, road accidents will be reduced, making journeys quicker and safer.
So, a fascinating and optimistic transition as we move from independent motoring to sustainable mobility in the coming years...
March 2014
By the end of Q1 2014, year-to-date registrations were up 13.7% to 688,122 units. Superficially, this might look bad for sustainability, as more new cars are on the road, with purchases perhaps fueled by extra cash in the pockets from PPI payouts. Of course, a large proportion of these cars are either bought as fleets, or using one of the range of car finance options available by dealers (nudging towards a different ownership model?).
The great news within these statistics is the ongoing path towards more efficient cars. In fact, March 2014 was the biggest-ever month for alternatively-fueled vehicles as volumes reach 8,713 units, a growth of 63.8% on 2013.
CO2 emissions for new cars are 26% lower than a decade ago...
...and 67.2% of the market was below 130g/km, so paid no VED in the first year, compared with only 6.5% of registrations in March 2004.
So some really positive news about the improvement made over the last decade and being seen on the forecourts of Britain.
So that's today. What about tomorrow? Below I've outlined my thoughts about what might happen in the medium-term...
2015-2020
Tailpipe emission reductions will continue at-pace, driven by the EU regulation, and with the really encouraging sign that buyers are more and more conscious of the running costs of their vehicles (and therefore these criteria will be marketed more, creating a virtuous circle). Manufacturers will continue to roll-out technologies across their fleet to drive down emissions, for example:
- Alternative and hybrid powertrains
- Turbocharging with smaller engines
- Variable valve technology and 'cylinder on demand'
- Auto start/stop
- Regenerative braking
- Improved aerodynamics
- Lightweighting of materials
Here's Audi's rundown of the technologies they are including within their range now (click to see larger):
 |
| Audi's sustainability innovations |
Private car ownership will continue to dwindle, with the growth of car clubs and car sharing continuing, in both cities, and on high-density commuting routes.
The near ubiquity of sat-nav should reduce congestion.
And of course manufacturers will continue to introduce new innovations, which will find their way into high-end models. A great example of this is Audi's integration with city-wide traffic lights management systems, helping the driver time their approach to traffic lights for when they are green:
 |
| Audi: traffic light integration |
In the world of regulation, we'll be seeing more city-level initiatives to suppress emissions. Paris has recently had to introduce alternate day travelling, and with London having recently faced very high pollution levels, it's only a matter of time when more is required there, albeit taxis being zero-emission capable from 2018 will help.
With the volatility and security of supply of many materials coming under the spotlight, there will be an even greater focus on the use of renewable materials, and ensuring that vehicles can be easily dismantled, with parts clearly identified at the end of their life for recycling (in fact, by 2015, in the EU, 85% of a car must be recyclable, and a further 10% suitable for energy recovery).
Finally, behind the scenes to the average driver, manufacturers will face greater pressure to be more environmentally aware in their facilities. Carbon, waste and water usage will all be reduced.
2020s
From 2020, there may be a decade of opportunity where people will be able to enjoy independent motoring, without being as worried about the environmental impact. Powertrain developments will have meant that it's much cheaper and cleaner to run a car (time will tell which combination of ultra-efficient diesel/petrol, fuel cell, electric, etc. will be optimal).
Private ownership of cars will have dwindled even further, with 'mobility solutions' meaning individuals can 'subscribe' to a service allowing them to choose suitable vehicles for different purposes, like Peugeot already run with their Mu Service and BMW is developing.
 |
| BMW i |
2030+
From 2030 onwards, the age of the independent motorist will have almost disappeared. Cars will be part of a mesh of inter-connected modules, driven automatically, without driver input required. Sounds like science fiction, e.g. Minority Report, which showcased the Lexus 2054 concept? Well, look at what Volvo have already been trialing, and inevitably, Google have been working on this too. [UPDATE MAY 2014: In fact, Google have announced they will develop their own driverless cars - perhaps 2030+ is too pessimistic!]
 |
| Volvo: Autonomous driving in traffic queues |
.jpg) |
| A prototype of a Google driverless car |
Maybe, each 'train' of vehicles will optimise the use of the available powertrains within each module, to drastically reduce overall consumption, perhaps with wireless charging from under the road? And of course, road accidents will be reduced, making journeys quicker and safer.
 |
| Wireless charging a Rolls Royce |
So, a fascinating and optimistic transition as we move from independent motoring to sustainable mobility in the coming years...
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